After a long period of silence on this site i am waking up again because i have finally published the book i have been working on for ages that was originally going to be given the same title as this site and was changed by request of the publisher. The publishers web site for the book is http://us.macmillan/thedisasterprofiteers/johncmutter Here is the cover
The Disaster Profiteers: How natural disasters make the rich richer and the poor even poorer.1/4/2016
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by John C. Mutter
This story in the NY Times today on the slow rate of recovery for the poorest people in Haiti is well worth reading. It speaks to the massive inequalities that disasters bring. by John C. Mutter Last week the NY Times ran a very fine article on plans for economic development in Haiti at Caracol on the north coast about as far away from the earthquake-effected region as one could imagine. This may seem callous – promoting development in an area that saw no effect at all from the 2010 earthquake. But it actually makes very good post-disaster reconstruction policy to stimulate businesses unaffected by the disaster. Natural disasters are humanitarian tragedies and the people most affected need swift and direct personal attention. But disasters are tragedies for economies as well so every effort needs to be made to get economies moving again in the wake of events like the earthquake in Haiti in 2010. In one sense then, the planned development at Caracol on the north coast of Haiti, well away from the affected area is exactly the right thing. Think of it this way, if there are five working members of your household all bringing in income and a flu epidemic afflicts the family, three of the five might become so sick they can’t work and bring income any more. Then it makes sense for the two still healthy to work harder and earn more while the ill are treated and recover. The Calacol project may seem like a callous disregard for the victims, but it’s not. It could provide jobs and tax revenues so that services can be provided for the most afflicted. The Times article raised legitimate concerns about labor practices in garment factories and about environmental impacts. These are valid and important concerns that should be addressed, but there is another potentially more ominous problem. The 2010 earthquake that reduced Port au Prince to still largely un-cleared rubble was caused by movement on a fault associated with the large Enriquuillo-Plantain Gardens Fault that runs just about under Port au Prince and out along Haiti’s southern peninsula and over to Jamaica and beyond. But it is not the only dangerous fault in Haiti — far from it. In the north of the island the deadly brother to the Enriquuillo-Plantain Gardens Fault is the Septentrional Fault; literally, the fault of the north. It runs under the Dominican Republic and exactly along the north coast of Haiti. In the map below shows the two faults. The Septentrional Fault is the same type of fault as its southern counterpart (technically a right-lateral strike-slip fault like the San Andreas). In 1842 this fault ruptured in the Cap-Haitian earthquake that had an estimated magnitude of 8.1 – the 2010 earthquake was magnitude 7.0. About 5000 people died in the quake and another 300 in the tsunami that followed. That is far fewer people than were killed in the 2010 event but there were far fewer people in the exposed area at the time. The planned Caracol development site is shown in the NY Times map below and is just as close to the Septentrional Fault as Port au Prince is to the Enriquuillo-Plantain Gardens Fault, maybe even a little closer. If all goes well Caracol will become a thriving center of production that could help lift Haiti out of post-disaster torpor and contribute to economic renewal. It is a good plan for the economy. But Caracol some time in the future could become Port au Prince 2010 relived. Though seismologists cannot say when or exactly where, they can say with certainty that the Septentrional Fault will move again. Because the fault has supported a magnitude 8 earthquake in the past, another earthquake of that magnitude is possible and a north coast Port au Prince tragedy is likely to result.
Haiti has suffered so many repeated tragedies in its history. If it is not too late the next earthquake humanitarian/economic tragedy can be averted. Factories and houses in the new center must be built to very high earthquake resistant standards. Including earthquake safe features into new construction adds just a few percent in costs but can ensure that many lives are saved and businesses can keep running or get back on line fairly quickly after an earthquake. Haiti need not lose so many people and the economy need not lose more than 100% of GDP as it did in 2010. Every seismologist who read the Times article on Friday and saw the location of Caracol must have put their head in their hands and cried – Oh no, not there. A safer place would be on the west-facing coastline near Gonaives or Saint-Marc. These places have their own problems like repeated flooding but they are far from active faults. The die was cast for development in Caracol some time ago and changing the location of the new industrial center is likely not feasible. But the recent catastrophe in Port au Prince should have heightened our sensitivity to earthquake risk in Haiti. So this is a plea to the developers of Caracol. Please take the time and put the extra effort into making the structures there safe from the earthquake that will inevitably cause the ground to writhe as it did in Port au Prince. The lives of thousands of future Haitian depends on your actions now. John C. Mutter weighs in on increasing hurricane frequency due to global warming at 5:38. By Erin Stahmer
As an accomplished academic and researcher in the field of natural science and sustainable development, John C. Mutter has embarked upon the authorship of a book that investigates the economic and social implications of natural disasters in our ever-evolving world. With newspapers and other media sources publishing flurries of articles in the days shortly after a disaster event, the availability of reliable information on the developmental implications of natural disasters often falls short of what should be provided to the general public. While his upcoming book shares the same name as this blog – Why Disasters Matter – this online site will serve as an authoritative place for rational, non-sensational information on current disasters. |
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